{"id":34163,"date":"2025-08-21T14:28:13","date_gmt":"2025-08-21T05:28:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uxdaystokyo.com\/articles\/?post_type=glossary&#038;p=34163"},"modified":"2025-08-22T11:35:15","modified_gmt":"2025-08-22T02:35:15","slug":"projection-bias","status":"publish","type":"glossary","link":"https:\/\/uxdaystokyo.com\/articles\/glossary\/projection-bias\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6295\u5f71\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"60\" data-end=\"231\">\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66\u3084\u884c\u52d5\u7d4c\u6e08\u5b66\u306e\u6587\u8108\u3067\u306f\u300c\u73fe\u5728\u306e\u72b6\u614b\uff08\u4f8b\u3048\u3070\u7a7a\u8179\u3001\u6c17\u5206\u3001\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff09\u304c\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u610f\u601d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3092\u904e\u5927\u306b\u5f71\u97ff\u3059\u308b\u300d\u73fe\u8c61\u3068\u3057\u3066\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"60\" data-end=\"231\">\u4f8b\uff1a\u304a\u8179\u304c\u7a7a\u3044\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u304d\u306b\u8cb7\u3044\u7269\u3092\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u5c06\u6765\u5fc5\u8981\u306e\u306a\u3044\u98df\u3079\u7269\u307e\u3067\u8cb7\u3044\u3059\u304e\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"571\" data-end=\"588\">\u63d0\u5531\u8005\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066<\/h2>\n<div style=\"width: 320px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.cmu.edu\/dietrich\/sds\/images\/800x800\/george-loewenstein.jpg\" alt=\"\u30b8\u30e7\u30fc\u30b8\u30fb\u30ed\u30fc\u30a6\u30a7\u30f3\u30b7\u30e5\u30bf\u30a4\u30f3\" width=\"310\" height=\"310\" \/><p class=\"wp-caption-text\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmu.edu\/dietrich\/sds\/people\/faculty\/george-loewenstein.html\">\u30b8\u30e7\u30fc\u30b8\u30fb\u30ed\u30fc\u30a6\u30a7\u30f3\u30b7\u30e5\u30bf\u30a4\u30f3<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n<p data-start=\"589\" data-end=\"715\">\u884c\u52d5\u7d4c\u6e08\u5b66\u8005\u306e <strong data-start=\"605\" data-end=\"644\">\u30b8\u30e7\u30fc\u30b8\u30fb\u30ed\u30fc\u30a6\u30a7\u30f3\u30b7\u30e5\u30bf\u30a4\u30f3\uff08George Loewenstein\uff09<\/strong> \u3089\u306b\u3088\u3063\u30662003\u5e74\u306e\u8ad6\u6587 <em data-start=\"659\" data-end=\"705\">Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility<\/em> \u3067\u63d0\u5531\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"717\" data-end=\"853\">\n<li data-start=\"717\" data-end=\"853\">\n<p data-start=\"719\" data-end=\"853\">\uff08\u30ab\u30fc\u30cd\u30ae\u30fc\u30e1\u30ed\u30f3\u5927\u5b66 \u6559\u6388\uff09<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 data-start=\"238\" data-end=\"267\">\u30c7\u30b6\u30a4\u30f3\u4e0a\u306b\u95a2\u308f\u308b\u5229\u7528\u65b9\u6cd5\u3068\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u4e8b\u4f8b<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"268\" data-end=\"322\">\u6295\u5f71\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\u306f\u300c\u30e6\u30fc\u30b6\u30fc\u304c\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u81ea\u5206\u3092\u6b63\u3057\u304f\u60f3\u50cf\u3067\u304d\u306a\u3044\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u524d\u63d0\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u3044\u3066\u30c7\u30b6\u30a4\u30f3\u6539\u5584\u306b\u6d3b\u7528\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"326\" data-end=\"406\"><strong data-start=\"326\" data-end=\"335\">E\u30b3\u30de\u30fc\u30b9<\/strong>\uff1a\u30e6\u30fc\u30b6\u30fc\u306f\u300c\u4eca\u306e\u6c17\u5206\u300d\u3067\u5546\u54c1\u3092\u8cb7\u3044\u3084\u3059\u3044\u305f\u3081\u3001<strong data-start=\"359\" data-end=\"372\">\u304a\u6c17\u306b\u5165\u308a\u4fdd\u5b58\u6a5f\u80fd<\/strong>\u3084<strong data-start=\"373\" data-end=\"386\">\u30ab\u30fc\u30c8\u5185\u518d\u78ba\u8a8d\u6a5f\u80fd<\/strong>\u3092\u8a2d\u3051\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u885d\u52d5\u8cb7\u3044\u3092\u6291\u5236\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"409\" data-end=\"481\"><strong data-start=\"409\" data-end=\"418\">\u5065\u5eb7\u30a2\u30d7\u30ea<\/strong>\uff1a\u5229\u7528\u8005\u306f\u300c\u4eca\u306f\u3084\u308b\u6c17\u304c\u3042\u308b\u304b\u3089\u7d9a\u3051\u3089\u308c\u308b\u300d\u3068\u8003\u3048\u304c\u3061\u3067\u3042\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001<strong data-start=\"451\" data-end=\"472\">\u901a\u77e5\u3084\u5c0f\u3055\u306a\u6210\u529f\u4f53\u9a13\u3092\u7a4d\u307e\u305b\u308b\u8a2d\u8a08<\/strong>\u304c\u6709\u52b9\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"484\" data-end=\"564\"><strong data-start=\"484\" data-end=\"494\">\u91d1\u878d\u30b5\u30fc\u30d3\u30b9<\/strong>\uff1a\u4eba\u306f\u300c\u5c06\u6765\u3082\u4eca\u3068\u540c\u3058\u53ce\u5165\u30fb\u652f\u51fa\u72b6\u6cc1\u300d\u3068\u8003\u3048\u3084\u3059\u3044\u305f\u3081\u3001<strong data-start=\"522\" data-end=\"544\">\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u5225\u306e\u5c06\u6765\u4e88\u6e2c\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3<\/strong>\u3092\u898b\u305b\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\u3092\u88dc\u6b63\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 data-start=\"860\" data-end=\"894\">\u30d7\u30ed\u30c0\u30af\u30c8\u3084\u30b3\u30f3\u30c6\u30f3\u30c4\u30c7\u30b6\u30a4\u30f3\u306e\u89b3\u70b9\u3067\u4f7f\u3048\u308b\u5834\u9762<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"897\" data-end=\"984\"><strong data-start=\"897\" data-end=\"909\">\u30b5\u30d6\u30b9\u30af\u30b5\u30fc\u30d3\u30b9<\/strong>\uff1a\u30e6\u30fc\u30b6\u30fc\u306f\u300c\u5c06\u6765\u3082\u305f\u304f\u3055\u3093\u4f7f\u3046\u3060\u308d\u3046\u300d\u3068\u601d\u3063\u3066\u5951\u7d04\u3059\u308b\u304c\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306f\u4f7f\u308f\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u304c\u591a\u3044\u3002\u305d\u306e\u305f\u3081<strong data-start=\"956\" data-end=\"975\">\u89e3\u7d04\u3057\u3084\u3059\u3055\u3084\u5229\u7528\u5b9f\u7e3e\u306e\u53ef\u8996\u5316<\/strong>\u304c\u91cd\u8981\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"987\" data-end=\"1051\"><strong data-start=\"987\" data-end=\"998\">\u98df\u4e8b\u5b85\u914d\u30a2\u30d7\u30ea<\/strong>\uff1a\u7a7a\u8179\u6642\u306b\u983c\u307f\u3059\u304e\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u306e\u3067\u3001<strong data-start=\"1014\" data-end=\"1027\">\u304a\u3059\u3059\u3081\u6570\u91cf\u306e\u5236\u5fa1<\/strong>\u3084<strong data-start=\"1028\" data-end=\"1042\">\u7fcc\u65e5\u306e\u98df\u4e8b\u30d7\u30e9\u30f3\u63d0\u793a<\/strong>\u304c\u6709\u52b9\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1054\" data-end=\"1116\"><strong data-start=\"1054\" data-end=\"1064\">\u5b66\u7fd2\u30b5\u30fc\u30d3\u30b9<\/strong>\uff1a\u5b66\u7fd2\u8005\u306f\u300c\u4eca\u306e\u3084\u308b\u6c17\u304c\u7d9a\u304f\u300d\u3068\u904e\u4fe1\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001<strong data-start=\"1087\" data-end=\"1107\">\u30ea\u30de\u30a4\u30f3\u30c0\u30fc\u8a2d\u8a08\u3084\u77ed\u671f\u76ee\u6a19\u306e\u63d0\u793a<\/strong>\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>\u95a2\u9023\u7528\u8a9e<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/uxdaystokyo.com\/articles\/glossary\/unconscious-bias\/\">\u30a2\u30f3\u30b3\u30f3\u30b7\u30e3\u30b9\u30fb\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/uxdaystokyo.com\/articles\/glossary\/confirmation-bias\/\">\u78ba\u8a3c\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/uxdaystokyo.com\/articles\/glossary\/house-money-effect\/\">\u30cf\u30a6\u30b9\u30de\u30cd\u30fc\u52b9\u679c<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4eba\u9593\u304c \u73fe\u5728\u306e\u81ea\u5206\u306e\u611f\u60c5\u3084\u6b32\u6c42\u3001\u4fa1\u5024\u89b3\u3092\u5c06\u6765\u306b\u3082\u5f53\u3066\u306f\u3081\u3066\u8003\u3048\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u8a8d\u77e5\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9 \u306e\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3042\u308b<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":34174,"template":"","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"English":"Projection 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